Economic assessment of the use of robotic systems in the automated construction of multi-storey buildings with an analysis of the impact on cost and return on investment in conditions of market instability

Abstract

The study assesses the economic feasibility of introducing robotic systems in the automated construction of multi-storey buildings, examining the impact on cost structure, delivery timelines, and return on investment under market instability; the empirical base comprises 18 projects (16-25 storeys) with modeled deployment of robots at the stages of rebar cage installation, concrete works, masonry, and finishing, and a comparison with traditional technologies using a total cost of ownership approach and DCF modeling (NPV, IRR) supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations on macro parameters (inflation, key interest rate, material prices, demand dynamics). Materials and methods cover a decomposition of unit cost by key items (labor costs including social charges, materials with losses, operation of plant and equipment, overheads), time-and-motion study and labor standardization, as well as calculation of the effects of accelerating the investment cycle on the cost of financing. The results show that despite higher plant and equipment costs due to depreciation of robotic assets (about +240%), comprehensive savings are achieved: labor costs decrease by roughly 63%, materials by 7-8%, and overheads by 21%, yielding an overall reduction in the final unit cost per $m^{2}$ of about 12%; in parallel, the duration of key operations declines on average by 25-44%, and the total construction period of a typical 20- storey project is shortened by 4-6 months, accelerating capital turnover and reducing interest expenses. Integrated financial indicators record an NPV increase of about 85% and an IRR uplift of 5-6 percentage points relative to the baseline scenario with comparable payback periods; sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the robotic model to shocks: with $a+30\%$ increase in labor costs, the decline in ROI is materially smaller, and with a -15% reduction in sales price, double-digit profitability is preserved. The discussion points to a shift toward a more capital-intensive yet more predictable model with lower margin volatility and reduced dependence on labor shortages; practical implications include phased scaling, service-based financing models (leasing/RaaS), linkage to BIM planning, and fleet buffering to reduce downtime.