Formation of a system for comprehensive environmental protection support in hydraulic engineering construction under conditions of changing climatic factors

Abstract

The article examines the transformation of environmental protection support for hydraulic engineering construction under conditions of climatic non-stationarity, in which engineering solutions based on the assumption of stationarity of hydrological series lose reliability and lead to underestimation of both emergency and cumulative ecological risks. It is shown that the intensification of runoff extremity and the redistribution of intra-annual flows alter the hydraulic structure of the flow in the lower pools, activate channel and bank processes, and form a nonlinear load on coastal biocenoses and infrastructure. Based on a systems analysis of the interaction of structures with components of the natural environment and statistical-probabilistic, stochastic modeling, long-term observations from 1965–2023 on water discharges, temperature, ice phenomena, and sediment transport were processed, compared with design and operational materials and ecological monitoring data; geoinformation technologies were used for spatial identification of vulnerability zones. Numerical series for the reservoir demonstrate stochastic dependence between peak flood discharges and volumes of soil washout with acceleration of erosion at increasing extreme discharges, as well as variability of the water exchange coefficient affecting the self-purification capacity and sanitary condition of the water area. The climate-induced degradation of materials is analyzed separately: an increase in the number of transitions through 0 °C intensifies freeze-thaw damage to concrete, while changes in moisture and groundwater levels complicate the filtration regime, which is confirmed by heterogeneity of carbonation and deviations in filtration discharges, including critical values on individual dam elements. Economic comparison of adaptation measures reveals the advantage of intelligent monitoring and automation, providing the greatest reduction in accident risk and prevented damage at moderate capital costs. The architecture of a comprehensive adaptive system is justified, integrating predictive monitoring, engineering protection, and updatable regulatory solutions; modeling indicates the potential for reducing integral ecological risk by 25–30% with an increase in operational costs by 10–12%, and practical applicability is associated with the development of digital twins and regional climate strategies for river basins.